U.S. Officials Have Revised Estimates on the Number of Insurgents in Iraq

According to a report by the New York Times, U.S. officials have revised their estimates from 2000 - 7000 insurgents up to 12000 - 20000, essentially tripling previous estimates. These estimates cover approximately 50 various groups that are receiving 'unlimited money' from former Baathists and Saddam relatives. The financing is supported by wealthy Saudis and money from Islamist groups coming through Syria. There is no tally of money that is coming through Syria, but officials say the amount is 'significant.'

From the Times article--

[T]he International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, in releasing its annual global military survey, said perhaps 1,000 Islamic jihadists have entered Iraq to join the fight, and it estimated that it would take five years for the American military to prepare Iraqi forces to take over fully from the forces of the United States and its allies.

If this estimate is correct, then one-quarter to one-half of the entire U.S. military will be tied up in Iraq until the year 2010. All the while our military is facing a well-funded and expanding insurgency backed by Saudis, Syrians, Iranians, al Qaeda, etc. U.S. officials have also altered their discussion regarding where the insurgents are from. For many months, we have been told that the insurgency has been led by foreign mujahadeen fighters like Abu Musab al Zarqawi. Now, it seems, officials say that few foreigners have entered the country and although they tend to be more violent in their attacks, the real threat comes from Iraqis themselves.

Top Army officers in Iraq tell the NYTimes that the real threat is that the U.S. is not faced with a single insurgent force, but multiple forces that have loosely banded together against the U.S. occupation. The senior intelligence officer in Iraq, Brig. Gen. John DeFreitas, told the NYTimes that it becomes difficult for the U.S. military to use conventional weapons and planning against an insurgent force. He summed up his position by saying, "Insurgents don't show up in satellite imagery very well."

A prime example of 'banding-together' can be seen in Falluja where U.S. officials say there are at least five insurgent groups, all with varying goals including anti-Americanism, criminal organization, kidnapping for ransom, and Baath Party loyalty. These five groups have banded together loosely without a single common purpose, but rather "as marriages of convenience," according to Col. Ron Makuta, the chief intelligence officer for the First Marine Expeditionary Force, stationed outside of Falluja.

It does seem apparent, however, that regardless of their individual purposes, these groups have identified a common enemy in the U.S. military, and are indeed working with a common purpose to drive the U.S. out of the country. I argued to those who would listen before the war began that if we invaded Iraq, we would have a significant force there for at least ten years. This force will be one that will be pre-occupied with minor insurgencies, and these banded-together insurgencies, while they could be in various parts of the world hunting al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. The Bush administration has no grasp on the scope of the President's decision to wage war on Iraq, and they continue to deny the obvious. Vote on November 2 to remove this administration from power to send a message that they were wrong on Iraq, and they are wrong in their approach to the Islamist insurgent threat worldwide. Even more importantly for us, they are wrong about the economy and about committing young men and women to a war that was not necessary for the security of our nation!