Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Checking the domestic facts

The following items come from a recent column by my favorite moderate (he worked for Reagan) economist (although his politics are not necessarily moderate) Paul Krugman--

JOBS
The economy needs approximately 1.6 million jobs per year to keep up with population growth. Since June 2003, the economy under GWBush has added 1.7 million jobs--not quite keeping up with population growth. Bush would have us believe that this period of time has been the fastest growth period in the economy in the history of our country. In fact, that is a totally misleading statement. Actually, the period of fastest growth happened during the 1990s following Clinton's tax increases on the richest 2% of Americans while cutting the taxes for the lower and middle classes.

UNEMPLOYMENT
Bush and the Republicans tout the declining (or at least stable) unemployment rate since January of this year--right around 5.6%; however, the fraction of the population who are 'employed' has not increased. The unemployment rate has decreased largely because some of those without jobs have stopped actively pursuing jobs. The labor force participation rate--those working or actively looking for work--has fallen under Bush. If this rate had stayed at its January 2001 level, the official unemployment rate would today be 7.4%!!

THE DEFICIT
Bush claims that the recession and 9/11 are primarily responsible for his administration's record budget deficits. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Republican tax cuts caused 2/3 of the 2004 deficit--the largest budget deficit in the history of the United States.

FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
Bush likes to claim that Kerry's economic proposals will cost $2.2 trillion to implement. According to Krugman, that number is a highly "partisan number and is much higher than independent estimates." He further mentions that "The Washington Post pointed out after the Republican convention [that] the administration's own numbers show that the cost of the [Bush] agenda...'is likely to be well in excess of $3 trillion' and 'far eclipses that of the Kerry plan.'"

SPENDING
According to Bush in the 'town hall' debate, he has increased nondefense discretionary spending by only one percent per year. The actual number is about 8 percent per year after adjusting for inflation. Krugman says, "Mr. Bush seems to have confused his budget promises - which he keeps on breaking - with reality."

HEALTH CARE
Bush continually attempts to paint Kerry's health care plan as a socialized system because Kerry wants to offer the option to people that they may buy into the same health care system as the Congress. The biggest point against Bush's argument is that the Congressional health care system is not a government-provider system. The government pays for health care for Congress members and Senators, but the legislators are free to choose the type of plan that they want from a variety of group plans. Kerry's proposal would offer to all Americans a buy-in to the group plans used by Congress.

SOME COMMENTS ABOUT TAXES (from The Office of Social Justice)
The top 1% [of earners] paid 34% of all federal income taxes and 25% of ALL PERSONAL FEDERAL TAXES (when the payroll tax is factored in) BUT HOLDS 38% OF ALL WEALTH IN THIS COUNTRY.

The top 5% paid 53% of all federal income taxes and 38% of ALL PERSONAL FEDERAL TAXES (when the payroll tax is factored in) BUT HOLDS 59% OF ALL WEALTH IN THIS COUNTRY.

According to Andrew Tobias--

The census bureau tells us that in 2001, the top 5% earned 22.4% of total U.S. income. So if the tax rate were proportional and not progressive, the top 5% should be paying 22.4% in total federal tax because they are earning 22.4% of the income.

But, because those in the top 5% pay so much less than 22.4% of the total payroll tax (the self-employed plumber with $87,900 in income pays $13,448; the retiree with $5 million in investment income pays nothing) - the top 5% should be paying a significantly larger share of the income tax just to bring their total federal tax burden back to proportionality.

But a lot of us believe in a progressive income tax. The guy making $5 million, we believe, should pay a higher percentage of his income in federal tax than the guy making $35,000.

Thus, we believe, the top 5% earning 22.4% of all the income should pay more than 22.4% of the total federal tax burden....While there is no precise magic number, I think the percentages we had under Clinton/Gore were about right. Everyone did pretty well. And we worked ourselves out of the giant Reagan/Bush budget deficits that we have now so quickly worked ourselves back into.


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