Gallup breaks down two likely scenarios for the Electoral College vote

According to Gallup, there are two likely possibilities that could decide the Presidential election this year. In both scenarios, the assumption is that the candidate wins the same states as his party's candidate in the last election if that state was won by more than 5% points. Everything then depends on a handful of states, most notably Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

From most recent Gallup polling, it looks as though Bush wins Florida and Kerry wins Pennsylvania. That means Ohio is hugely important. At the time the article was written, Kerry was leading Ohio and the polls were shifting in his favor. If he wins Ohio, then Bush must win two of Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico. If Kerry wins three of those four, then he wins the election. Bush has been in the lead in both Wisconsin and Iowa for most of the year.

Of course, if Kerry wins Florida or Bush wins Pennsylvania, then the complexities become exponentially greater. Ohio remains a key state, along with the upper midwest. It will be hard to predict the results of this election, and many pundits and pollsters are saying that the results of this election could easily not be known until late November or early December.