JULY NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAQ'S FUTURE MOSTLY NEGATIVE

According to today's NYTimes, a highly classified National Intelligence Estimate presented to the President by the CIA Intelligence Council at the end of July discusses three scenarios for the future of Iraq--none of them good. According to unnamed officials who have been briefed on the NIE, the worst scenario would be one in which civil war develops in Iraq while the best-case scenario presented by the NIE would be a situation in which the Iraqi government is able to sustain its current level of control. Even under this best-case scenario, elections would not be possible at any time in 2005 according to the analysis of the Intelligence Council.

National Intelligence Estimates are typically requested by the President, but this NIE was commissioned by George Tenet as one of his final acts as Director of Central Intelligence. It is interesting that this document discusses many of the same conclusions reached by Britain's premiere intelligence think-tank, Chatham House, which was released last week. Chatham House also concluded that three scenarios were the most likely. In their analysis, one of the most likely scenario seems to be civil war within the next year, likely with the U.S. caught in the middle.

And yet, our illustrious president and vice-president continue to insist that the situation in Iraq is improving. How can either of them possibly have the information presented to them by the NIE and look at the American people each day on the campaign trail and lie to them? Some people might argue that they are not lying. If not, then what should we call it? Suppose, if you will, that I were told by a mechanic that my car's engine would have a serious mechanical failure within the next year and I decide to sell my car. When prospective buyers call to ask about the car that I am selling, I tell them that the car is in top shape and runs like a brand new car. Am I lying to them? YES! Because I have been told by experts that the situation is dire and yet I insist to the buyer that the situation is much must better. Is that not what Bush and Cheney are attempting to sell to the American people? Should we not call that a lie? This administration has been one of untruth, secrecy, obfuscation, misleading statements, and what I can only call outright lies.

WAKE UP!!